Ely & District Progressives

Local people attempting to shake up local politics

Can our Conservative MP be Ousted by a Local Progressive Alliance?

TL;DR yes, yes she can.

In the last two general elections our Conservative MP, Lucy Frazer, has gained at least 50% of the vote. This means she would have won even if all the other parties had worked together. 

However, the national polls have changed considerably since 2019. The Conservatives’ support has decreased from 43% at the last general election to 33% in the latest polls. At the same time support for the progressive parties (Labour, LibDem & Green) has increased from 46% to 54%. Conservatives have lost 25% of their votes while and the combined progressive votes have incresed by 16%.

Would these changes threaten Lucy Frazer’s seat? Yes, yes they would, if the local progressive parties work together.

In 2019 Lucy Frazer gained 50% of the votes and the combined progressive vote was 48%. What happens if we apply the national change in support proportionally to our constituency result. Lucy Frazer’s vote share would decrease to 38%, while the combined progessive vote would increase to 56%.

We go from a progressive alliance possibly coming close to unseating our MP to it being a realistic possibility. Which would be supported by a majority of the local electorate.

Assuming the national support changes apply locally isn’t a fanciful idea. It’s clear Conservative support is waning locally as well as nationally. Earlier this year the local Conservatives lost control of the County Council and the Conservative Mayor was ousted. The Conservative Mayor lost to the Labour candidate after he picked up the supplementary votes of LibDem voters.

So, the change in support makes Lucy Frazer’s seat vulnerable and given the chance local progressive voters are ready to take advantage of that. They just need a single obvious candidate to get behind.

Our local progressive parties are already working together running the County Council. Hopefully they can also cooperate to give that single obvious candidate to seriously challenge our local MP.

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This entry was posted on December 22, 2021 by in Uncategorized.